Paying for His Own Mistakes with Other People's Blood

According to The New York Times, Ukraine last month handed European officials an intercepted Russian plan to attack the country's energy infrastructure. The document calls for approximately 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones, and 150 guided aerial bombs. According to the calculations presented in the plan, this would be enough to deprive Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa of electricity, heating, and water supplies within a month. The plan envisages disabling approximately 90% of power generation and heating capacity in these cities.

Russia's previous four winter campaigns failed to achieve their objective of completely destroying Ukraine's energy system. This time, however, the circumstances are different. Ukraine is entering the winter with a severe shortage of Patriot interceptors, while American military stockpiles have been depleted by the war with Iran. At the same time, Donald Trump's administration is attempting to restrict Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries, linking those demands to its efforts to stabilize fuel prices.

Both developments are connected to decisions made in Washington. The war with Iran has increased American expenditure of missile defense interceptors and disrupted energy supplies. Seeking to mitigate the economic consequences of that campaign, the White House reached an agreement with Moscow over Russian diesel fuel. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries subsequently became the target of direct American pressure. As a result, Kyiv faces both reduced access to defensive weapons and demands to limit its own attacks against Russia's fuel infrastructure.