Thirty Years of the Same Mistake

For more than three decades, Washington's policy toward Russia has unfolded in the same cycle of trust and disappointment. Every new U.S. administration tries to "start with a clean slate." Each presidency convinces itself that it will finally manage to establish "predictable relations" with Moscow. And every time, the kremlin uses this opening to buy time, regroup, and prepare for its next act of aggression.

1990s. After the collapse of the USSR, Washington assumed that Russia would become a democracy. Billions of dollars in loans and assistance flowed into Moscow; it was invited into the G7 and given access to Western institutions. Western leaders spoke of a "new beginning." Yet behind the façade of reforms, the security apparatus was already building a revanchist state. Wars in Chechnya raged with massive civilian casualties, and the kremlin carved out the puppet enclave of Transnistria in Moldova. In 1999, Yeltsin sent Russian troops into Pristina, signaling a willingness to use force in the heart of Europe. The U.S. preferred not to see this, unwilling to break the illusion of a "democratic Russia."

2000s. Moscow skillfully crafted the illusion of rapprochement with the United States. The kremlin spoke of partnership, signaled openness, and made symbolic gestures that Washington read as signs of change. In reality, Russia continued its brutal war in the North Caucasus, sold weapons to authoritarian regimes across the world, strengthened anti-Western alliances, and prepared for military scenarios. The culmination was the 2008 war against Georgia – the first time since World War II that Moscow openly redrew borders by force. Again: diplomatic protests, but no real consequences. This only deepened the kremlin's sense of impunity.